Vietnam’s manufacturing industry in the first half of 2026: The leap from “world factory” to “regional engine”

引言

2026年上半年的越南制造业数据，再次印证了这个东南亚国家在亚洲供应链版图中的关键位置。GDP增长8.18%，制造业增加值增长10.23%，这样的数字不仅体现了越南经济的韧性，更折射出全球生产网络正在经历的深刻重组。在“中国+1”策略下，越南不仅是产能转移的承接地，更逐渐成为区域制造业的决策节点。

增长动能：制造业成为经济压舱石

根据越南国家统计局数据，2026年上半年GDP同比增长8.18%，高于2025年同期的7.63%。其中工业和建筑业增长9.81%，对整体经济增长贡献47.2%。制造业和加工业增加值增长10.23%，贡献33.07%的经济增长。这一数据清晰表明，越南的增长模式已经从早期的出口导向型，逐步转变为制造业驱动型。

制造业的强劲增长并非偶然。全球供应链的多元化需求，加上越南政府提供的税收优惠和工业园区建设，使得外资持续涌入。2026年上半年，工业增加值占经济总增加值的40.35%，显示出实体经济在经济增长中的核心作用。

PMI：需求改善与就业收缩的悖论

S&P Global 6月越南制造业PMI为51.8，虽然较5月的52.8有所放缓，但仍保持在扩张区间。值得注意的是，新订单和产出的增长主要得益于客户需求的实际改善，而非此前的预防性囤货。同时，投入成本压力显著缓解，为企业创造了更有利的运营环境。

然而，就业连续四个月下降成为隐患。这说明尽管订单回升，但企业可能仍在通过提高现有员工生产率来应对，而非大规模招聘。这也反映了制造商对未来需求可持续性的谨慎态度。如果下半年全球商业环境稳定，制造业有望维持增长势头，但就业数据的持续萎缩可能限制产能扩张。

产业升级：从劳动密集型向高附加值转型

2026年上半年，越南工业生产指数（IIP）同比增长10.8%，创下2019年以来最高半年度增速。制造业和加工业增长11.4%，贡献了8.9个百分点的增长。从细分行业看，基础金属制造增长21.5%，机动车制造增长17.7%，饮料制造增长15.4%，化工产品增长14.8%。这一增长结构显示出越南制造业正在从传统的纺织品、家具等劳动密集型产业，向附加值更高的资本和技术密集型产业延伸。For example, the strong growth in base metals is related to infrastructure construction and demand for machinery and equipment manufacturing, while the relatively fast growth in automobile manufacturing reflects the trend of domestic consumption upgrading and regional supply chain integration. This structural adjustment is crucial to Vietnam's long-term competitiveness, as its labor cost advantage is gradually weakening with rising wages.

Foreign Investment and Employment: Challenges under Dual Engines

As of June 1, 2026, employment in industrial enterprises increased by 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, employment in foreign-invested enterprises grew the strongest, up 3.1% year-on-year, showing the dominant role of foreign investment in driving employment. Manufacturing employment rose 3.2% year-on-year, continuing to be the main absorber of labor. However, it should be noted that although total manufacturing employment is increasing, the employment sub-index of the PMI has been contracting continuously, suggesting that new jobs may be concentrated in large foreign-invested enterprises, while small and medium-sized enterprises still face pressure.

The position of foreign investment in Vietnam's manufacturing sector is irreplaceable. According to the "Asia Manufacturing Index 2026" published by Dezan Shira & Associates, Vietnam ranks among the top in regional competition thanks to its labor costs, export infrastructure, and strategic location. The clustering of foreign-invested enterprises in processing and manufacturing has not only brought capital but also introduced advanced technology and management experience, promoting Vietnam's integration into the global value chain.

Outlook: Supercycle or Short-Term Boom?

The Vietnamese government has set a growth target of 10% for 2026, while international institutions forecast between 7.2% and 8.5%. First-half GDP growth of 8.18% is already close to the upper end of international forecasts, but achieving the government's target still requires a significant acceleration in the second half. The main risks facing the manufacturing sector include weak global demand, policy changes in major trading partners, and competition from other countries in the region (such as India and Indonesia).

However, Vietnam has unique advantages: political stability, a young labor force, increasingly improved infrastructure, and a deepening network of free trade agreements. As the "China+1" strategy shifts from simple capacity transfer to the construction of more complex regional production networks, Vietnam has the opportunity to upgrade from a production and assembly base to a regional innovation and decision-making center. But this requires sustained investment in human resources, supply chain localization, and industrial upgrading, rather than relying solely on cost advantages.

Conclusion

In the first half of 2026, Vietnam's manufacturing sector has demonstrated a clear trajectory of transformation from the "world's factory" to a "regional engine." Behind the data lies the grand narrative of Asian supply chain restructuring, and Vietnam is at the core of this process. For investors and analysts, understanding this structural shift is more important than simply tracking monthly data.

Reference source: Vietnam Manufacturing Tracker: A First-Half 2026 Review